Expected value model
Analysis
Data Source: Wheelo Ratings AFL Expected Scores
Overall sample
Full Sample Set Shots
- Seed
- Full sample
- Scope
- Regular season
- Years
- 2021-2026
- Players
- 932
- with at least one set shot
- Set shots
- 30,585
- regular-season attempts
- Goals
- 16,362
- 53.5% of attempts
- Complete Misses
- 4,149
- Shots that did not generate a score
- Behinds
- 10,074
- registered minor scores
- Games
- 128
- Full sample
Active selection
AFL
AFL·Full sample (2021-2026)
- Shots
- 30,585
- Goals
- 16,362
- Behinds
- 10,074
- Misses
- 4,149
GoalBehindMiss
Full sample (2021-2026) Inside 50 ProfilesTeam Inside-50 Shot Profile
| Rank | Entry Profile | All Shots | Set Position | General Play | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFL | AFL Average | 52.2 | 11.7 | 40.5 | 24.2 | 21.3 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.59 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.81 |
| 1 | Geelong | 55.2 | 14.2 | 41.1 | 25.8 | 22.8 | 3.0 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 3.65 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.94 |
| 2 | Brisbane | 56.6 | 12.7 | 43.9 | 25.5 | 22.5 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 3.57 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.88 |
| 3 | Port Adelaide | 53.1 | 12.7 | 40.4 | 25.0 | 21.8 | 3.2 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 3.44 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.70 |
| 4 | Western Bulldogs | 55.2 | 12.6 | 42.7 | 26.4 | 23.8 | 2.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 3.64 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 2.75 |
| 5 | Sydney | 54.5 | 12.0 | 42.5 | 25.7 | 21.9 | 3.9 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 3.73 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.87 |
| 6 | Collingwood | 51.5 | 11.9 | 39.6 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 3.57 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.90 |
| 7 | Melbourne | 55.0 | 11.8 | 43.1 | 25.1 | 22.3 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.49 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.80 |
| 8 | Hawthorn | 51.8 | 11.7 | 40.0 | 23.8 | 21.4 | 2.4 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 3.60 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.83 |
| 9 | St Kilda | 50.2 | 11.6 | 38.6 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 2.6 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 3.45 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.87 |
| 10 | Essendon | 50.8 | 11.5 | 39.3 | 23.4 | 20.2 | 3.1 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 3.61 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.75 |
| 11 | Carlton | 52.6 | 11.4 | 41.2 | 24.1 | 21.2 | 3.0 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.63 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.69 |
| 12 | Greater Western Sydney | 51.8 | 11.4 | 40.4 | 23.7 | 20.7 | 3.0 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 3.69 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.92 |
| 13 | Richmond | 50.3 | 11.3 | 39.0 | 23.5 | 20.1 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.45 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.80 |
| 14 | Adelaide | 51.6 | 11.2 | 40.5 | 25.0 | 21.5 | 3.6 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 3.77 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.82 |
| 15 | Fremantle | 51.6 | 11.1 | 40.5 | 24.8 | 22.2 | 2.6 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.58 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.68 |
| 16 | Gold Coast | 54.1 | 11.0 | 43.1 | 24.6 | 21.9 | 2.6 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.55 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.87 |
| 17 | West Coast | 45.7 | 9.9 | 35.8 | 20.9 | 18.3 | 2.5 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 3.54 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.65 |
| 18 | North Melbourne | 46.3 | 9.9 | 36.4 | 20.9 | 18.6 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 3.74 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.81 |
Team season average curve
Average team shots by metre
35-40m
1.9/G
21.5% share
40-45m
2.3/G
25.6% share
45-50m
2.8/G
31.3% share
50-55m
1.6/G
17.6% share
55-60m
0.4/G
4% share
35-40m volume change
+0.4/G
more than 30-35m
40-45m volume change
+0.4/G
more than 35-40m
45-50m volume change
+0.5/G
more than 40-45m
50-55m volume change
-1.2/G
less than 45-50m
55-60m volume change
-1.2/G
less than 50-55m
| Band | Avg shots/team | Acc. | Shots | EV | Shot Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-40m | 240.2 | 53.7% | 4,323 | 3.60EV inputs35-40m: 3.60 expected pointsShotsGoalsBehinds4,3232,3221,645Missed goalGoal acc.Behind rate2,00153.7%82.2%EV = 6 x goal rate + 1 x missed-goal rate x behind rate. No-score misses: 356. | +2.22Shot edge35-40m: +2.22 points vs passShot EVPass EVEdge3.601.38+2.22Positive means taking the set shot projects higher than the pass option benchmark. |
| 40-45m | 286.3 | 49% | 5,153 | 3.33EV inputs40-45m: 3.33 expected pointsShotsGoalsBehinds5,1532,5271,996Missed goalGoal acc.Behind rate2,62649%76%EV = 6 x goal rate + 1 x missed-goal rate x behind rate. No-score misses: 630. | +1.95Shot edge40-45m: +1.95 points vs passShot EVPass EVEdge3.331.38+1.95Positive means taking the set shot projects higher than the pass option benchmark. |
| 45-50m | 350.0 | 41.6% | 6,300 | 2.88EV inputs45-50m: 2.88 expected pointsShotsGoalsBehinds6,3002,6202,419Missed goalGoal acc.Behind rate3,68041.6%65.7%EV = 6 x goal rate + 1 x missed-goal rate x behind rate. No-score misses: 1,261. | +1.50Shot edge45-50m: +1.50 points vs passShot EVPass EVEdge2.881.38+1.50Positive means taking the set shot projects higher than the pass option benchmark. |
| 50-55m | 196.9 | 32.1% | 3,545 | 2.29EV inputs50-55m: 2.29 expected pointsShotsGoalsBehinds3,5451,1371,297Missed goalGoal acc.Behind rate2,40832.1%53.9%EV = 6 x goal rate + 1 x missed-goal rate x behind rate. No-score misses: 1,111. | +0.91Shot edge50-55m: +0.91 points vs passShot EVPass EVEdge2.291.38+0.91Positive means taking the set shot projects higher than the pass option benchmark. |
| 55-60m | 44.6 | 23.5% | 803 | 1.77EV inputs55-60m: 1.77 expected pointsShotsGoalsBehinds803189285Missed goalGoal acc.Behind rate61423.5%46.4%EV = 6 x goal rate + 1 x missed-goal rate x behind rate. No-score misses: 329. | +0.39Shot edge55-60m: +0.39 points vs passShot EVPass EVEdge1.771.38+0.39Positive means taking the set shot projects higher than the pass option benchmark. |
Volume dip reference
3m Increments
Full sample (2021-2026)
Overall
| Band | Shots/Game | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 44-46m | 1.5 | 43.9% |
| 47-49m | 1.8 | 40.3% |
| 50-52m | 1.1 | 34.2% |
| 53-55m | 0.6 | 28% |
Center
| Band | Shots/Game | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 44-46m | 0.6 | 53.9% |
| 47-49m | 0.8 | 48.7% |
| 50-52m | 0.5 | 39.2% |
| 53-55m | 0.3 | 31.3% |
Left
| Band | Shots/Game | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 44-46m | 0.4 | 38.5% |
| 47-49m | 0.5 | 32.6% |
| 50-52m | 0.3 | 29.3% |
| 53-55m | 0.2 | 21.6% |
Right
| Band | Shots/Game | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 44-46m | 0.4 | 35.2% |
| 47-49m | 0.5 | 34.7% |
| 50-52m | 0.3 | 29.8% |
| 53-55m | 0.2 | 28% |
Shot-distance distribution
Set Shots by Metre
- Games
- 954
- 25th percentile
- 11 pts
- Middle 50%
- 11-48 pts
- Median margin
- 26 pts
- Avg margin
- 32 pts
Points Differential
Margin in Points Distribution
Margin groupsMatch point differential grouped distribution
| Points | Games | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5pts | 139 | 14.6% |
| 6-10pts | 96 | 10.1% |
| 11-15pts | 100 | 10.5% |
| 16-20pts | 78 | 8.2% |
| 21-25pts | 50 | 5.2% |
| 26-30pts | 85 | 8.9% |
| 31-35pts | 57 | 6% |
| 36-40pts | 51 | 5.3% |
| 41-45pts | 45 | 4.7% |
| 46-50pts | 45 | 4.7% |
| 51-60pts | 70 | 7.3% |
| 61-70pts | 58 | 6.1% |
| 71-80pts | 28 | 2.9% |
| 81-90pts | 21 | 2.2% |
| 91-100pts | 13 | 1.4% |
| 101-110pts | 7 | 0.7% |
| 111-120pts | 5 | 0.5% |
| 121-130pts | 5 | 0.5% |
| 171-180pts | 1 | 0.1% |
Cumulative thresholdsRegular season margin bands
| Band | Games | Share |
|---|---|---|
| <= 1 | 38 | 4% |
| <= 5 | 139 | 14.6% |
| <= 10 | 235 | 24.6% |
| <= 15 | 335 | 35.1% |
| <= 20 | 413 | 43.3% |
| <= 25 | 463 | 48.5% |
| <= 30 | 548 | 57.4% |
| <= 35 | 605 | 63.4% |
| <= 40 | 656 | 68.8% |
| <= 50 | 746 | 78.2% |
| <= 60 | 816 | 85.5% |
| <= 70 | 874 | 91.6% |
| <= 80 | 902 | 94.5% |
| <= 90 | 923 | 96.8% |
| <= 100 | 936 | 98.1% |
| <= 110 | 943 | 98.8% |
| <= 120 | 948 | 99.4% |
Match log