Expected value model

Model - Shoot Decision as Basis

EV Variance Calculator

Shot EV

1.79

Pass EV

1.37

Edge EV

+0.42

Edge SD

3.17

Inputs

Original Set Shot

%
%

Inputs

Pass Option

%
%
%
%
pts

Inputs

Sample Size

Output

Direct Shot

Probabilities:
Goal probability:
24%
Behind probability:
35%
No-score probability:
41%
Goal EV:
1.44 pts
Behind EV:
0.35 pts
Shot EV:
1.79 pts
Shot variance:
5.79
Shot SD:
2.41 pts

Output

Pass Option

Probabilities:
Marked goal probability:
12.7%
Marked behind probability:
6.7%
Marked no-score probability:
3.6%
Unmarked score probability:
19.3%
Unmarked no-score probability:
57.8%
Marked Goal EV:
0.76 pts

Second Shot EV: 3.59

Marked Behind EV:
0.07 pts
Unmarked Pass EV:
0.54 pts

Unmarked Pass EV

Unmarked Shot EV * Unmarked Rate

0.7 * 77%

Pass EV:
1.37 pts
Pass variance:
4.27
Pass SD:
2.07 pts

Decision

Shot vs Pass Edge

Accuracy needed:
16%
Mark rate needed:
38%
Edge EV:
+0.42 pts
Edge variance:
10.05
Edge SD:
3.17 pts
Decision:
Shoot

Accuracy Needed:

Direct Shot Threshold: 16%

Game result

Single-Game Noise

Opportunities:
2.0
Expected game gain:
+0.85 pts
Game variance:
20.11
Game SD:
4.48 pts
68% range:
-3.64 pts to +5.33 pts
95% range:
-8.12 pts to +9.82 pts
99.7% range:
-12.60 pts to +14.30 pts

Season result

Season-Level Noise

23 games
Season opportunities:
46
Expected season gain:
+20 pts
Season variance:
462
Season SD:
22 pts
68% range:
-2 pts to +41 pts
95% range:
-23 pts to +63 pts
99.7% range:
-45 pts to +84 pts

Stability

Average Edge Stability

Total Decisions:
46.0
EV Edge / Decision:
+0.42 pts
Avg Edge SD:
0.47 pts
Edge SD / Edge EV:
110.2%
68% Avg Range:
-0.04 pts to +0.89 pts
95% Avg Range:
-0.51 pts to +1.36 pts

Stability

Sample Size Needed

Stability TargetDecisions Needed
Noise = edge56
Noise ≤ 50% of edge224
Noise ≤ 25% of edge894
Noise ≤ 15% of edge2,482

Visual Analysis

Live model charts

EV by Assumption

Shot EVPass EVEdge
Test variable
Pass mark rate
00.91.82.70%30%60%Pass mark rate (%)Expected points

Season Outcome Distribution

-560209599.7% interval95% interval68% interval-4584-2363-241ZeroEdge EVNet points gained over seasonP(season > 0): 82%Relative likelihood

Sample Size: Stability Table

DecisionsEdge NoiseNoise / EdgeStability
13.17 pts
747.2%
Very noisy
51.42 pts
334.2%
Very noisy
101.00 pts
236.3%
Very noisy
250.63 pts
149.4%
Very noisy
500.45 pts
105.7%
Very noisy
1000.32 pts
74.7%
Noisy
2500.20 pts
47.3%
Moderate
5000.14 pts
33.4%
Moderate

Outcome Probabilities

Direct Shot
Goal24%
Behind35%
No score41%
Pass
Marked goal12.7%
Marked behind6.7%
Marked no score3.6%
Unmarked score19.3%
Unmarked no score57.8%